The definition of a “Hype Cycle” is “a graphical representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies” according to Wikipedia.org.

The term was originally “coined” by The Gartner Research Group (based in Stamford, CT). There supposedly 5 phases in the Hype Cycle:

1. “Technology Trigger“ — The breakthrough, or product launch
2. “Peak of Inflated Expectations“ — The frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
3. “Trough of Disillusionment“ — Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” when they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
4. “Slope of Enlightenment“ — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
5. “Plateau of Productivity“ — A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

Click the thumbnail below (pulled from Gartner.com) to check out a handful of technologies mapped to the “Hype Cycle” chart:

What I found most interesting/enlightening about this Hype Cycle theory was outlined in a video presentation by Chris Anderson (Editor of Wired Magazine). He suggests that “unique opportunities exist at each phase of the hype cycle”. If you’re someone who spends time reviewing technology news sources such as TechCrunch, Mashable.com, etc… you’ll find many of the companies are written about @ the “Technology Trigger” phase and then quickly buried under the next up and comer. This goes for many of the VC bloggers out there as well… they pump out reviews/commentary on the latest and greatest technologies/startups at such an early stage… and often times these technologies become “old news” before they even reach the “slope of enlightenment”.

Here is the video presentation by Chris Anderson… but beware… it’s 16 minutes long:

YouTube  Chris Anderson - The Technology Long Tail

Categories: Business, Economics, Tech, Video.

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